Baseball Diamond News

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Cubs ramblings

According to Ken Rosenthal’s article today the Cub’s are trying to sign Julio Lugo. I have no problem with this and think it would be a great signing, but not if they put him in center field. I think Lugo at SS would be much better than Izturis (who he said could then go to Boston). Lugo on the Cub’s would solve the lead-off hitter problem and if they then could sign Soriano (which I don’t think will happen), their lineup would be set. I would have this as my lineup if they acquire Soriano. The only glaring problem in this lineup is that it is very right handed…..

SS Lugo
LF Murton
1b Lee
CF Soriano
3b Ramirez
RF Jones

C Barrett
2b DeRosa

I think that this lineup will be able to produce more runs than last year, but it would have been better to sign a left-handed 2b. If the Cubs fail to sign Soriano and they do sign Lugo, then they need to sign a lefty bat to play in the outfield.


  • You want Lugo to lead-off? He only has a .341 obp.

    if DeRosa absolutely must be more than a bench player then...
    1.) Murton
    2.) DeRosa (vs. LHP @RF) Theriot(vs. vs. RHP)
    3.) Lee
    4.) Ramirez
    5.) Jones (vs. RHP) / Barrett(vs. LHP)
    6.) Drew (vs. RHP)/ Barrett (vs. RHP)
    7.) Drew(vs. LHP)/ Theriot (LHP)
    8.) Lugo
    If you notice, I have Theriot ALWAYS starting at 2B, I know this obviously won't happen considering we just paid some scrub $13M/3 years to play primarily 2B. But I would ideally like to see this unless Theriot struggles. (DeRosa would platoon w/ Jones and fill in for Drew whenever he's injured)

    OR, if we wanted to save $$ on Drew and go for pitching...

    1.) Lofton
    2.) Murton
    3.) Lee
    4.) Ramirez
    5.) Barrett
    6.) Jones (DeRosa v. LHP)
    7.) Theriot
    8.) Lugo

    If we trade Izturis and give Theriot a chance to continue his dominance from last year (if you look at his offensive stats in that short period, he truly dominated).
    -Old Style Heavy

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:05 AM  

  • Lugo had a .373 OBP until he was traded to the Dodgers and they screwed around with him, trying to make him Ryan Freel. If they had just left him out there, I am positive his OBP would have been much higher.

    By Blogger Greg Abcarian, at 12:49 PM  

  • a .378 OBP, huh? Wow, I don't know if it's because the Dodgers tried to turn him into Ryan Freel. I'd guess that he just came back to earth.
    After all, in '06 his OBP was .341 and which slightly RAISED his career OBP to .340. So it looks like he just performed at the ability he has throughout his career.
    Oh, and a correction, batting #6 against LHP was supposed to be Theriot, and batting #7 against RHP was supposed to be Barrett.
    -Old Style Heavy

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:36 PM  

  • Then his .360+ in 2005 was a blip too?

    By Blogger Greg Abcarian, at 10:10 PM  

  • Again, his career obp is a .340 and last year his obp was .341. I don't know why you expect this guy to put up a great on base percentage. Yes, 2 years ago he put up a .362, and the year before that he got a .338 obp. Again, this is why we use the term "average" in basic statistical analysis. It's actually a simple concept that even small children can understand. His average obp over the span of his career is .340. Furthermore, we know that his career average obp is indeed indicative of his future ability to get on base because this is not a situation in which he has dramatically improved every year and thus the average is an faulty predictor. Rather, his CAREER AVERAGE OBP and his 2006 SEASON OBP are essentially the SAME. HE is a .340 obp player, and nothing more should be expected from him. Perhaps he may have another .360 year, or perhaps he may have a .330 year. However, we can ROUGHLY expect another .340 year.
    Can we please debate about another issue rather than debating the simple statistical analysis. You remind me of a guy who claims aramis is absolutely incredible because of his 2nd half numbers. Well that's why we take his ENTIRE season OBP to analyze his 2006 success. At the start of the '05 season when Nomar went down, Neifi put up great numbers. Will he ever repeat those numbers again? Perhaps. However, to predict his ability we look at SEASON AVERAGES and CAREER AVERAGES to conclude he probably won't.

    So essentially, if your think cranium can comprehend this, Lugo should not be EXPECTED to produce much more than a .340 obp.
    -Old Style Heavy

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:45 AM  

  • I'll agree to disagree about Lugo. But for the record, I always said Nefi sucked, read past articles (even when he was hot for a month) and as for Aramis, I even said that was a waste of a deal since his 2nd half inflated his overall numbers.

    Lastly, I have to say I love Old Style 30 packs!!!!

    By Blogger Greg Abcarian, at 10:56 PM  

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